Thanks for starting this interesting discussion! The approach that you outline is very similar to how Outcome Mapping (OM) is used for planning and monitoring purposes. In the FAO Evaluation Office we have used Theory of Change (ToC) and OM for evaluation purposes only.
RE: Can we use an evidence-based, evolving Theory of Change to achieve "local learning” during project design?
Dear John,
Thanks for starting this interesting discussion! The approach that you outline is very similar to how Outcome Mapping (OM) is used for planning and monitoring purposes. In the FAO Evaluation Office we have used Theory of Change (ToC) and OM for evaluation purposes only.
I believe you can find some examples on evolving ToC and the application of OM in the real world at the Better Evaluation website: https://www.betterevaluation.org/en/plan/approach/outcome_mapping
Best regards,
Carlos